Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket prices this contract at **27% YES**, which implies traders see a limited but real chance that Iran publicly commits on-chain-relevant terms before year-end 2026. Because the market settles on a public agreement, not implementation, a unilateral statement, a deal with the U.S. or Israel, or a formal pledge to halt enrichment would be enough if it appears before 31 December 2026. On Polymarket, that means USDC holders on Polygon are effectively pricing the odds that a real-world headline later maps cleanly into the market’s conditional token rule set.

The closest historical frame is the JCPOA period, when Iran accepted limits rather than a permanent end to enrichment: the 2015 accord capped enrichment at 3.67%, cut stockpiles sharply, and restricted facilities, but it did not eliminate enrichment entirely.[4][6][12][15] Iran later breached those limits, announcing in 2019 that it would enrich above 3.67%, which shows how reversible and politically contingent nuclear commitments can be.[8] Since the JCPOA expired in October 2025, the market is not pricing a return to that specific framework so much as a narrower, more explicit pledge to end enrichment altogether.[14]

For traders, the main catalysts are diplomatic announcements, not technical verification. The sharpest moves tend to come from U.S.-Iran statements, intermediary talks, and any IAEA-facing language that suggests a negotiated text is being finalised; recent reporting has already described an agreement in principle on disposing of highly enriched uranium, while also noting that no final signature or IAEA verification had yet appeared.[10][3][11] The key dependency is whether negotiations progress from a template or framework into a public pledge that expressly covers *all* enrichment, since the market counts any agreement made before expiry, even if the timetable for implementation is later.[11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.