Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket’s contract is effectively pricing a near-zero chance that Tehran will publicly commit, by the spring 2026 deadline, to transfer any part of its enriched uranium stockpile, with settlement on Polygon in USDC and the event encoded through conditional tokens. That is consistent with the current 0% YES reading: traders are not just betting on future diplomacy, but on a specific public pledge that Iran must make before 31 March 2026, whether alone or inside a wider deal.

The historical pattern argues for caution on a fast repricing. Iran has previously accepted uranium-related constraints under negotiated frameworks, including the 2015 nuclear deal and the earlier interim arrangement, where the IAEA reported that Iran diluted or converted more than 97% of a sensitive stockpile.[1][6] But the more recent trajectory has been the opposite: by 2024-25, watchdog reporting showed Iran’s enriched uranium inventory had grown well beyond earlier limits, with estimates around 440 kilograms of 60% material in 2025 and broader stockpiles measured in tonnes.[2][4][5] That leaves a high evidential bar for any “Yes”: the market needs a public, attributable commitment, not merely private talks or a vague willingness to discuss.

The main catalysts are formal announcements, IAEA board language, and any U.S.-Iran or ceasefire-linked statement that explicitly mentions shipment, transfer, or handover of enriched material. Reuters reporting in May 2026 said Washington was insisting Iran could not keep the stockpile, while Iranian sources said the supreme leader had ordered it stay inside the country, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi described the issue as postponed or at deadlock.[3] For Polymarket users, the practical watchpoints are whether a verifiable statement lands before the deadline and whether it is clear enough to satisfy the contract’s public-agreement standard; absent that, the conditional token remains a pure long-shot.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by 2026? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.