US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by 2026? (2 week pause)

Platform comparison

Market context

The United States and Iran are locked in a volatile cycle where a single strike on shipping or military sites instantly resets any pause in hostilities. With the crowd-implied probability at just 5% for a 14-day ceasefire, the market reflects the reality that recent US actions have been frequent and aggressive, making a continuous two-week lull highly improbable.

Historically, similar pauses in this conflict have collapsed within days due to retaliatory drone attacks or new naval incidents. The June 2026 memorandum of understanding briefly held before breaking after a ship was struck by a drone, leading to renewed US strikes on missile and radar sites [2][3]. Even the April 2026 ceasefire, which lasted roughly two months, ended when tensions over the Strait of Hormuz escalated, proving that fragile agreements rarely survive the region’s operational volatility [7].

Traders should monitor CENTCOM announcements for fresh strike authorisations and any reports of Iranian assaults on commercial vessels in the Hormuz corridor. The US recently hit over 80 Iranian targets and reimposed oil sanctions following assaults on shipping, a pattern that suggests further military action is likely before any sustained pause can occur [1][4]. Additionally, the deployment of the USS Abraham Lincoln and upcoming CENTCOM readiness drills could serve as catalysts for escalation, further depressing the odds of a successful 14-day window [8]. On Polymarket, these USDC bets on Polygon utilise conditional tokens that resolve automatically once the settlement window closes, locking in the 5% probability until the final determination.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by 2026? (2 week pause) across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.