Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world's most heavily transited chokepoints for maritime commerce, yet warship passages by non-regional powers remain comparatively rare. The market currently prices at 4% the likelihood that at least one country will send military vessels through the strait by end-July 2026—a window of roughly eighteen months. On Polygon, this conditional token reflects trader scepticism that geopolitical conditions will escalate sufficiently to trigger such a transit, or that if one occurs, it will meet the market's definition of confirmed passage by a named nation's military.

Historical precedent suggests the bar is genuinely high. The US Navy conducts "freedom of navigation" operations in contested waters globally, yet formal transits through the Strait of Hormuz by American warships occur episodically rather than routinely, often tied to specific diplomatic incidents or regional crises. The 2019 tanker attacks and subsequent US military build-up saw increased American naval activity, but sustained warship transits require either explicit regional escalation or a deliberate policy shift. European navies have occasionally participated in Gulf operations, though typically via established bases rather than headline-generating strait passages. The current 4% probability reflects the market's assessment that absent a major Iran-related crisis, the status quo of cautious naval positioning will persist through mid-2026.

Traders should monitor Iranian nuclear negotiations, US policy shifts following electoral cycles, and any incidents involving commercial shipping or existing military assets in the Gulf. Recent reporting from Reuters and regional defence analysts indicates no imminent scheduled transits by non-regional powers, though US carrier deployments and European naval rotations remain fluid. Confirmation would require either official military announcements or corroborating reports from multiple credible sources documenting the actual passage.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.