0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz has seen commercial transits drop to near zero following a 100-day blockade triggered by regional escalations in early 2026, yet traffic has recently resumed with eight ships passing on a single Monday in June. This historical volatility frames the current 0% crowd-implied probability for a complete halt: while the strait was effectively closed between March 1 and March 5 when war risk insurance was cancelled, the subsequent reopening suggests a full stop to all vessel types is unlikely before July 2026 [2][3].

Traders on Polymarket.com.se should monitor the daily IMF PortWatch “Arrivals of Ships” data, which covers container, dry bulk, and tanker vessels, as the settlement relies entirely on this specific dataset rather than broader trackers like MarineTraffic. Recent Windward Intelligence reports show transit counts falling sharply from 41 vessels on 1 July to 35 on 7 July, indicating a downward trend that could test the market’s low probability if a single day hits zero [9]. The key catalyst is the official status of the Iran-US agreement and any renewed insurance cancellations, which previously made entry economically impossible for major carriers like Maersk and MSC [2].

The contract functions via USDC on the Polygon network using conditional tokens, meaning a zero-arrival day instantly resolves the market to “Yes” regardless of subsequent traffic. Given that April 23 previously saw no transits—the first such instance during the conflict—the historical precedent exists, though the current recovery trend makes a repeat less probable as major carriers have resumed operations [10].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.