Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Platform comparison

Market context

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted, with daily transits hovering near single digits rather than the 60-plus required for this market to resolve "Yes". The 7-day moving average was just 2.57 as of mid-June, representing a collapse of over 95% from pre-war norms[1]. Historical parallels and expert estimates suggest recovery is rate-limited by logistical bottlenecks and security threats, with traffic projected to reach only 40–50 ships per day within 30 days[1]. Clearing the estimated 500-ship backlog alone is expected to take a month, while a full return to pre-war levels would require roughly eight weeks[1]. For the average to exceed 60 by the end of June, daily transits would need to surge to 70–100+ almost immediately and sustain that level, a mechanical impossibility given the lagging average and only 11 days remaining[1].

Traders should monitor the "delicate ceasefire" between the US and Iran, which sparked optimism but remains conditional on military coordination and technical constraints[3]. Recent data shows only four transits recorded on a single Wednesday, confirming that meaningful rebound has not yet occurred[3]. Key dependencies include the resolution of undefined transit conditions, toll structures, and legal parameters that currently discourage ship owners[3]. While a widened naval route near Oman was announced on 27 June to challenge Iranian control, commercial shipping remains suspended following a brief reopening in April[4][7]. The mechanical difficulty of lifting a lagging 7-day average from single digits to over 60 in under two weeks makes the current 1% probability highly rational, with only an unexpected rush of backlogged vessels or rapid AIS normalization keeping the possibility above zero[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.