Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Over 30,000 vessels pass through the Strait of Hormuz annually, yet daily crossings have collapsed by more than 95% since the Iran war began, with pre-war averages of 75–125 ships now replaced by near-zero traffic[8]. Recent IMF PortWatch data from March 2026 recorded 41 transit calls over a seven-day window, yielding a moving average of 5.86, which sits well below the 60-call threshold seen in comparable high-traffic markets[1][2]. This historical baseline explains why the market currently prices a 2% YES probability: the strait remains severely disrupted, and the data reflects a chokepoint where GPS jamming and AIS spoofing force vessels to go dark, making reliable counts exceptionally rare[6].

Traders should monitor official announcements regarding regional conflict de-escalation or new naval patrols that might restore safe passage, as these are the primary catalysts for traffic recovery. The IMF PortWatch platform updates weekly with satellite-derived data, so any sudden shift in the 7-day moving average would be the first on-chain signal of change[4][9]. Recent reports highlight that trade disruptions in the Red Sea have further compounded risks for tanker flows, meaning any resolution of those tensions could indirectly boost Hormuz traffic[10]. With the settlement window closing on 30 June 2026, the conditional tokens on Polygon (USDC) will resolve based solely on whether IMF Portwatch publishes a finalized daily number meeting the listed value, making real-time data releases the critical dependency for this contract[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.