Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?

Platform comparison

Market context

Iran has not issued a public, official commitment to stop attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz, leaving the 2% YES price on Polymarket’s USDC/Polygon contract to reflect the high likelihood of a “No” settlement before 23:59 ET on 12 July. The market trades conditional tokens representing binary outcomes, with liquidity anchored in on-chain mechanics that settle automatically once the announcement window closes.

Historically, Iran’s Hormuz posture has been conditional and declarative only under external pressure, never as an unconditional policy shift. In June 2026, Oman reported Iran “affirmed commitment to international law and toll-free safe passage” after talks, yet Iran struck a vessel days later, pausing escort operations and undermining the pledge [1]. Earlier US demands for a public guarantee to end attacks and keep lanes open were met with sanctions and no binding statement [2][9]. These precedents suggest that without a formal, unambiguous declaration from Tehran or an authorised representative, the market resolves “No”.

Traders should monitor for a declarative statement from Iran’s government or an authorised envoy explicitly committing not to attack ships transiting the Strait. Key catalysts include the ongoing negotiations in Oman led by US Vice President JD Vance, where navigation through Hormuz is the primary sticking point [6]. Any announcement must clearly identify a future policy of non-aggression against all transiting vessels; vague assurances or conditional permits for “non-hostile” ships do not qualify [3]. With talks ongoing and Iran adamant about retaining administrative control over strait traffic, the absence of a qualifying pledge by the deadline remains the dominant outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.