🎁 New traders: 100% Deposit Match up to $500 · 0% fees · instant USDC payoutsClaim it →
HomeGuideCryptoMarketsBlogOpen the market →

What will be the top US Netflix show this week?

How the prediction-market book is pricing "What will be the top US Netflix show this week?" right now, with a side-by-side platform comparison and zero-fee CTAs.

The Hawk: Season 1 97% Show A 50% Show B 50% Show C 50% Volume: $137K Liquidity: $73K Closes: 21 Jul 2026
Open live market →
What will be the top US Netflix show this week?

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 97% 3% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Open the market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 97% 3% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Open the market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Open the market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Open the market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Open the market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
The Hawk: Season 197%
Show A50%
Show B50%
Show C50%
Show D50%
Show E50%
Show F50%
Show G50%
Other50%
Little House on the Prairie: Season 13%
I Will Find You: Limited Series1%
Worst Neighbor Ever: Season 10%
Quarterback: Season 30%
The Ultimatum: Marry or Move On: Season 40%
Dark Winds: Season 40%
Avatar: The Last Airbender: Season 20%
Sullivan's Crossing: Season 40%
Salish & Jordan Matter: Season 20%

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 97% YES probability for What will be the top US Netflix show this week?. Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, July 21, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will re…

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Chris ReedChris ReedPolitical Forecasting EditorandMaya TorresMaya TorresFinancial Markets Writer

Trade What will be the top US Netflix show this week? on PolyGram

Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.

Open live market →

Related live markets

More live prediction markets from our tracker — every trade button routes to PolyGram.

See all markets →