"The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office

Platform comparison

Market context

The Odyssey's second weekend domestic box office performance—specifically its three-day gross from 24–26 July 2026—is currently priced at 1% YES on Polymarket, meaning conditional tokens are trading as though a strong hold is highly unlikely. This valuation reflects either minimal confidence in the film's staying power or uncertainty about its opening weekend performance, which would determine whether a respectable second-weekend figure is even possible. Traders holding YES tokens would profit if the film's 24–26 July gross lands in the upper bracket ranges; those shorting the contract expect a steeper drop-off typical of wide releases.

Second-weekend holds vary dramatically by genre and opening strength. Franchise entries and event films frequently retain 50–65% of opening weekend revenue, whilst original properties often see 55–70% declines. The Odyssey's positioning—whether positioned as tentpole IP or original material—will heavily influence whether a strong second weekend is plausible. Recent comparable releases from 2025–2026 will provide the most relevant benchmarks once opening weekend figures materialise, as the spread between opening and second weekend determines which bracket resolution becomes likely.

The critical catalyst is The Odyssey's opening weekend performance, expected around 18–21 July. Word-of-mouth metrics, critical reception, and audience demographics will surface immediately thereafter, signalling whether the film has legs for a respectable second weekend hold. Box Office Pro and Deadline typically publish studio estimates within days of opening; The Numbers' final figures—which this market uses for settlement—typically arrive within two weeks. Traders should monitor early tracking data and any marketing shifts in late June, as these often precede opening weekend adjustments that cascade into second-weekend projections.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.