Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has **66%** on yes, paid in USDC on Polygon and settled through conditional tokens, so the contract is trading as a fairly strong view that the final The Numbers opening-weekend figure will clear **$357,115,007**. That price implies traders think the film needs only a modest upside from the current tracking range to beat *Avengers: Endgame*, rather than a once-in-a-generation surge.

The historical comparison cuts both ways. *Endgame* still holds the domestic opening-weekend record at **$357 million**, while *Spider-Man: No Way Home* reached **$260.1 million** and remains the second-biggest debut ever, which is why recent coverage has framed *Brand New Day* as a potential runner-up rather than a certainty to take the crown[1][5][13]. Current box-office reporting has pointed to preview business of **$72 million**, above *Endgame*’s **$60 million** preview haul, but the main weekend estimates in the press have clustered around **$260 million to $330 million+**, depending on the source and how aggressively analysts model walk-up sales and late demand[1][4][6][7][13].

For a trader, the key catalysts are the final Friday-to-Sunday run-rate, any studio or analyst revision to weekend tracking, and whether The Numbers later replaces estimates with final daily figures that still keep the three-day total above the threshold. A useful live reference point is that the film is already open, with early reports saying it began with record preview business and strong first-day attendance in some markets, but the contract will not resolve off anecdotes; it resolves off the final The Numbers domestic opening-weekend line for 31 July to 2 August[1][2][3][4]. That means the practical focus is on whether Sunday and any Monday-to-final-data adjustments preserve a finish above the record rather than just a headline-grabbing launch.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.