How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ships are moving through the Strait of Hormuz again after weeks of near-total blockade caused by the Iran war, easing oil prices as traffic recovered over the weekend of July 6, 2026 [4]. This market on Polymarket prices the contract at 84% YES for a specific weekly transit count, reflecting trader confidence that the chokepoint has reopened sufficiently for normal commercial flows to resume [4]. On-chain, the bet settles in USDC on Polygon using conditional tokens, where the outcome hinges entirely on IMF Portwatch’s finalized transit calls for container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships between 6 and 12 July [10].

Historically, the Strait handles 20–30% of global oil consumption daily, with dozens of VLCCs and LNG vessels passing through before the conflict [2]. During the peak of the blockade in late June 2026, outbound commercial traffic dropped to zero for 72 hours, creating a severe bottleneck crisis that halted crude tanker movements entirely [2]. The current 84% probability aligns with the post-ceasefire recovery seen in early July, where the first ships transited under the US-Iran ceasefire but traffic remained slow and uncertain [8]. Unlike the near-standstill of late June, weekend data now shows inbound and outbound voyages returning, suggesting a baseline volume that supports the YES outcome [1].

Traders should monitor daily updates from IMF Portwatch and MarineTraffic for finalized transit calls, as data must be confirmed before settlement [1][2]. Key catalysts include any announcements from US-Iran talks or sudden shifts in maritime security that could disrupt the fragile recovery [6][8]. The settlement window ends 23:59 UTC on 12 July 2026, with the market resolving once the final day’s data point is available [10]. Watch for discrepancies between live tracking and Portwatch’s official counts, as unreported ships will not count toward the total [10].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 6? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.