GPT-6 released by…?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket prices this contract at **0% YES**, which means the market is currently treating a public GPT-6 release by 31 December 2025 as effectively impossible. On Polymarket, traders post and match **USDC** on **Polygon**, and the outcome is settled through conditional tokens, so the relevant question is not whether OpenAI has internal work under way, but whether GPT-6 is actually made publicly available under the market’s definition.

The nearest comparable signal is the April 2026 model that many observers expected to become GPT-6, but which shipped instead as **GPT-5.5** on 23 April 2026. A later write-up noted that OpenAI had not published an architecture, parameter count, pricing, or launch date for the model codenamed “Spud” before it launched as GPT-5.5[1]. That history matters for reading the current price: it shows OpenAI can delay or rebrand a model family late in the process, but it also shows that public release requires a clearly named, externally accessible launch rather than a private test or API teaser[1][15].

For traders, the key catalysts are official OpenAI release notes, product blog posts, and any scheduled livestream or developer event that names GPT-6 outright. News coverage in 2026 has already framed the next major numbered model as a later-cycle launch, with some sources saying the expected window moved into late 2026 or beyond after the GPT-5.5 release[9][13][15]. Any announcement that is limited to closed beta access, enterprise preview, or waitlist-only testing would not satisfy this market’s settlement terms; a public ChatGPT or API launch would.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track GPT-6 released by…? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.