Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this contract at **65% YES**, so the market is treating a second-phase Israel–Hamas ceasefire agreement as more likely than not, but still far from a done deal. On the platform, that price is reflected through USDC-settled, Polygon-based conditional tokens, so the move from here will be driven by whether a publicly announced mutual agreement is actually reached before the settlement window closes.

The current read sits in a familiar pattern for Gaza ceasefire markets: Phase 1 created a real negotiating framework, but Phase 2 has historically been the harder lift because it runs straight into the unresolved issues of **Israeli withdrawal**, **Hamas disarmament**, and who governs Gaza afterwards. Reporting in early 2026 described Phase 2 as advancing in name but still bogged down in disputes over demilitarisation and transitional administration, while Israel continued to carry out strikes and negotiators struggled to turn announcements into a signed mutual text.[1][2][4][6][14] That makes 65% look like a bet on diplomacy remaining alive, not on the terms already being settled.

For traders, the main catalysts are formal statements from Israel, Hamas, the US, Qatar and Egypt, plus any calendar for Cairo or Doha talks, hostage-remainder exchanges, or an agreed security framework. Reuters, AP and other outlets have repeatedly tied progress to whether mediators can bridge the gap between a permanent ceasefire, troop withdrawal and a technocratic Gaza administration.[11][16][18] Watch for any announcement that names the parties to the deal, sets a timetable for implementation, or confirms international force participation, since those are the kinds of developments that would move the conditional token price quickly on-chain.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.