Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket prices **Yes** at 56% on USDC-settled, Polygon-based conditional tokens, so the crowd is leaning towards a return to at least 60 IMF Portwatch-reported transit calls on the 7-day average before 31 December 2026. That matters because the contract does not care about rhetoric or headline vessel counts; it resolves only when IMF Portwatch publishes the threshold on its own “Arrivals of Ships” series, which can make the market react to a data print rather than to the broader political narrative.[4][1]

The current price sits between the more optimistic readings seen after shipping began to recover in June and the more cautious reassessments that followed renewed disruption in July, when traders on other venues marked down the odds of a full return to normal traffic by year-end.[15][17][1] For a user holding conditional tokens, the key analogue is a market that can resolve early if the 7-day average crosses the line, but otherwise carries event risk right through the final data publication in late December; that makes the path of each weekly data update more important than a single daily spike.[3][4]

Traders should watch any Iran–US diplomatic announcements, shipping-security advisories, and changes in vessel routing or insurance costs, because these can change whether operators commit enough sailings to lift the moving average back above 60. Reuters reported in April that traffic had been at well below 10% of normal even after a ceasefire, while later coverage in June and July pointed to a gradual trickle back and then fresh strains on the corridor, showing how quickly the supply of transits can swing with political developments.[14][15][17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.