Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively halted, with the 7-day moving average of daily transit calls hovering near 13 ships, far below the 60 required to declare normalcy. For the market to resolve YES by 31 July, daily transits must surge to 70–100+ almost immediately and sustain that level, demanding over 420 transits in a single 7-day window with only 11 days remaining. This mechanical hurdle makes the current 43% crowd-implied probability appear optimistic, as similar resolution attempts in past months saw odds plummet from 66% to 21% within weeks when backlogs failed to clear [1][3].

Historical precedents show that even brief reopenings have not restored flow, as the strait is currently closed with commercial shipping suspended after a short reopening period [4]. The pre-conflict average of 75–125 ships is unlikely to return while US naval blockades and Iranian restrictions persist, requiring a fivefold increase in traffic that contradicts current geopolitical realities [2]. Traders should monitor IMF PortWatch updates for any sudden shifts in AIS broadcasting or minor data anomalies, though these are unlikely to overcome the lagging average [1]. Recent reports confirm the daily economic cost exceeds $4 billion, with ships rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope, adding 14 extra transit days and tripling tanker spot rates [4]. No credible catalyst suggests a rapid normalization before the settlement window closes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.