Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket currently prices this contract at 6% **Yes**, so the market is treating a new Abraham Accords signing before the end-2026 deadline as a low-probability event. On Polymarket, traders are swapping USDC on Polygon through conditional tokens, so the price reflects the crowd’s live read on whether a country will formally normalise relations with Israel under the Abraham Accords framework before the settlement window closes.[1][2]

That caution fits the history of the Accords. The framework began with the 2020 normalisation deals involving the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco, later followed by Sudan and Kazakhstan, but the recent field of plausible joiners has been narrower and more politically constrained.[3][5] Coverage and market listings point to names such as Somaliland, Jordan and others in the wider orbit of speculation, yet the key takeaway for traders is that a market in the single digits implies the crowd sees formal, publicly acknowledged signing as materially harder than rhetoric, exploratory diplomacy or indirect contact.[1][2]

Catalysts to watch are official statements from Washington, Jerusalem and any candidate government, plus the appearance of concrete signing dates, draft text or joint announcements that explicitly tie the deal to the Abraham Accords continuation.[2] Traders should distinguish between talk of “normalisation” and the stricter resolution standard here: the agreement must be formally signed and publicly attributed before 31 December 2026, 11:59 PM ET.[2] In practice, the market will move most on confirmed summit schedules, envoy travel, and credible reporting that a deal has crossed from diplomacy into a documented signature.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.