How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 3 - August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this contract at a **96%** chance of **YES**, so the market is treating at least one USGS-listed **M6.5+** quake in the August 3–9 window as the base case rather than a tail event. Because the contract settles off the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program feed, the practical question for holders is not whether earthquakes occur, but whether the final count reaches the threshold once the catalogue is fully updated and any late revisions are incorporated.[9][10]

That pricing sits in the context of a year that has already produced multiple sizeable global quakes, including several **6.5+** events in June and July on the USGS/BGS recent-event listings.[5][8] Historical comparables matter because one strong sequence can lift the weekly count quickly: the 2026 Mindanao sequence, for example, generated very large aftershock activity and at least two **6.5** events, showing how a major mainshock can keep the count elevated well beyond the first rupture.[15] For a Polymarket user, that means the conditional tokens hinge on the final USGS event count, not headline intensity or damage.

The main catalysts to watch are any new USGS event pages, magnitude revisions, and the market’s own extension rules if a qualifying quake occurs near the end of the window but has not yet been posted on the resolution source.[9][10] USGS may keep updating event magnitudes after the first bulletin, and the market terms allow extra time for late inclusion or revision before settlement.[9] Traders should also watch major subduction zones and recent active belts in the Pacific, because those are the most plausible sources of a late-cycle qualifying event.[5][11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.