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PGA Tour: BMW Championship Winner

How the prediction-market book is pricing "PGA Tour: BMW Championship Winner" right now, with a side-by-side platform comparison and zero-fee CTAs.

Scottie Scheffler 24% Rory McIlroy 7% Xander Schauffele 7% Keith Mitchell 5% Volume: $115K Liquidity: $698K Closes: 23 Aug 2026
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PGA Tour: BMW Championship Winner

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 24% 76% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Open the market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 24% 76% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Open the market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Open the market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Open the market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Open the market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Scottie Scheffler24%
Rory McIlroy7%
Xander Schauffele7%
Keith Mitchell5%
Cameron Young5%
Ludvig Aberg4%
Sam Burns4%
Matt Fitzpatrick4%
Tommy Fleetwood4%
Chris Gotterup4%
Viktor Hovland4%
Si Woo Kim4%
Collin Morikawa4%
Patrick Cantlay3%
Wyndham Clark3%
Kurt Kitayama3%
Jake Knapp3%
Hideki Matsuyama3%
Maverick McNealy3%
Michael Brennan2%
Jacob Bridgeman2%
Nicolas Echavarria2%
Rickie Fowler2%
Ryan Fox2%
Ryan Gerard2%
Russell Henley2%
Ryo Hisatsune2%
Nicolai Hojgaard2%
Tom Kim2%
Min Woo Lee2%
Alexander Noren2%
JT Poston2%
Aaron Rai2%
Kristoffer Reitan2%
Justin Rose2%
Adam Scott2%
J.J. Spaun2%
Justin Thomas2%
Michael Thorbjornsen2%
Akshay Bhatia1%
Bud Cauley1%
Eric Cole1%
Alex Fitzpatrick1%
Ben Griffin1%
Robert MacIntyre1%
Alex Smalley1%
Sepp Straka1%
Sahith Theegala1%
Gary Woodland1%
Matt McCarty0%
Player 00%
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Player 80%
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Player 190%
Other0%

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 24% YES probability for PGA Tour: BMW Championship Winner. This market will resolve according to the listed player who wins the 2026 BMW Championship tournament. If a listed player is eliminated from contention for the BMW Championship tournament based on th…

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Chris ReedChris ReedPolitical Forecasting EditorandMaya TorresMaya TorresFinancial Markets Writer

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