Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
66% | 34% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
66% | 34% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Lloyd Harris vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 66% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Lloyd Harris vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz | 62% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Lloyd Harris vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz Set 2 Winner | 59% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Lloyd Harris vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz Set 1 Winner | 58% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Lloyd Harris vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz Game Spread +/-1.5 | 58% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Lloyd Harris vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz Match O/U 21.5 | 56% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Lloyd Harris vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 53% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Lloyd Harris vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Lloyd Harris vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Lloyd Harris vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Lloyd Harris vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz Match O/U 22.5 | 48% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Lloyd Harris vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz Match O/U 23.5 | 46% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Lloyd Harris vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 41% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Lloyd Harris vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 38% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Lloyd Harris vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 36% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 66% YES probability for US Open, Qualification ATP: Lloyd Harris vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz. This market refers to the tennis match between Lloyd Harris and Pablo Llamas Ruiz in the US Open, Qualification ATP, originally scheduled for August 27, 2026 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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