Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Mackenzie McDonald vs Yibing Wu Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Mackenzie McDonald vs Yibing Wu Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Mackenzie McDonald vs Yibing Wu Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Mackenzie McDonald vs Yibing Wu Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Mackenzie McDonald vs Yibing Wu Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Mackenzie McDonald vs Yibing Wu Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Mackenzie McDonald vs Yibing Wu Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Mackenzie McDonald vs Yibing Wu Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Mackenzie McDonald vs Yibing Wu | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Mackenzie McDonald vs Yibing Wu Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Mackenzie McDonald vs Yibing Wu Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Mackenzie McDonald vs Yibing Wu Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Mackenzie McDonald vs Yibing Wu Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Mackenzie McDonald vs Yibing Wu Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, cincinnati open, qualification: mackenzie mcdonald vs yibing wu stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Mackenzie McDonald and Yibing Wu in the Cincinnati Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for August 11, 2026 at 1:30PM ET. This …
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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