Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
78% | 22% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
78% | 22% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Jakub Mensik Match O/U 21.5 | 78% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Jakub Mensik Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 76% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Jakub Mensik Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 75% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Jakub Mensik Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Jakub Mensik Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Jakub Mensik Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Jakub Mensik Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Jakub Mensik Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Jakub Mensik Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Jakub Mensik Set 2 Winner | 43% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Jakub Mensik Set 1 Winner | 43% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Jakub Mensik | 40% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Jakub Mensik Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 35% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Jakub Mensik Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Jakub Mensik Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 20% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, mubadala citi dc open: brandon nakashima vs jakub mensik stands at 78% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Brandon Nakashima and Jakub Mensik in the Mubadala Citi DC Open, originally scheduled for July 30, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market w…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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