Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Swedish Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Taro Daniel | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Swedish Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Taro Daniel Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Swedish Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Taro Daniel Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Swedish Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Taro Daniel Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Swedish Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Taro Daniel Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Swedish Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Taro Daniel Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Swedish Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Taro Daniel Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Swedish Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Taro Daniel Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Swedish Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Taro Daniel Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Swedish Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Taro Daniel Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Swedish Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Taro Daniel Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Swedish Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Taro Daniel Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Swedish Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Taro Daniel Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Swedish Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Taro Daniel Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Swedish Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Taro Daniel Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of swedish open: botic van de zandschulp vs taro daniel. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Botic van de Zandschulp and Taro Daniel in the Swedish Open, originally scheduled for July 14, 2026 at 6:30AM ET. This market will r…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Swedish Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Taro Daniel on PolyGram
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