Guarani FC SP vs. AA Internacional Limeira SP

Platform comparison

Market context

Guarani FC SP will host AA Internacional Limeira SP in a Série C fixture on Monday, 27 July 2026. The conditional YES token on Polymarket currently trades at parity, reflecting a 100% implied probability that the match will occur as scheduled. Settlement hinges on the game taking place within the specified window; cancellation, postponement beyond 23:00 UTC that day, or failure to complete would resolve NO.

Série C matches in Brazil's lower divisions have historically faced fixture disruptions due to weather, administrative disputes between clubs, or federation scheduling conflicts. However, the league's recent operational record shows improved stability compared to prior seasons. Internacional Limeira, competing in the third tier, has maintained consistent fixture participation over the past two years, whilst Guarani—a historically prominent São Paulo club—typically commands better infrastructure and scheduling priority. The 100% probability suggests market participants assess both clubs as operationally sound and the federation's calendar as locked.

Traders monitoring this contract should track official CBF (Confederação Brasileira de Futebol) communications regarding Série C scheduling, particularly any weather alerts for the São Paulo region in late July. Injury announcements or squad availability issues, whilst affecting match outcome markets, do not alter settlement conditions for fixture occurrence. The settlement window's tight closure at 23:00 UTC means any postponement announced after kickoff or during play would trigger NO resolution. Monitor Guarani's official channels and CBF fixture lists for any last-minute administrative changes in the 48 hours preceding the match.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.