Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| Virginia 1H O/U 12.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| Spread -0.5 | 81% |
| O/U 35.5 | 77% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 72% |
| Spread -1.5 | 69% |
| Spread -2.5 | 65% |
| O/U 37.5 | 63% |
| O/U 39.5 | 63% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 62% |
| O/U 41.5 | 60% |
| Spread -0.5 | 59% |
| Spread -8.5 | 57% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 57% |
| 2H Moneyline | 56% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 55% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 55% |
| O/U 57.5 | 52% |
| Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| O/U 59.5 | 51% |
| Virginia 2H O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| Virginia Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| O/U 65.5 | 50% |
| O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| O/U 71.5 | 50% |
| O/U 73.5 | 50% |
| O/U 75.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| Duke O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Duke O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Virginia O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Virginia O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Virginia O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Duke 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Duke 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Duke 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Virginia 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Virginia 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Duke vs. Virginia: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Duke vs. Virginia: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Duke Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Duke vs. Virginia: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Duke Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Duke Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Duke Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Duke Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Duke Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Duke Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Duke Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Duke Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Duke Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Duke Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Duke Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Duke 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Duke 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Virginia 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Duke Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Virginia 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Duke Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Duke Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Duke Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Duke Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Duke Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Duke Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Duke Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Duke Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Duke vs. Virginia: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Duke vs. Virginia: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Duke vs. Virginia: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| Duke O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Virginia O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| Spread -4.5 | 48% |
| Spread -5.5 | 47% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 47% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| O/U 43.5 | 45% |
| Virginia O/U 23.5 | 45% |
| Spread -6.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 38% |
| Duke O/U 20.5 | 37% |
| Spread -7.5 | 33% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| Duke vs. Virginia | 31% |
| O/U 45.5 | 31% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 31% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 30% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 28% |
| Duke O/U 23.5 | 28% |
| Spread -1.5 | 27% |
| O/U 47.5 | 27% |
| Virginia O/U 26.5 | 25% |
| Spread -2.5 | 24% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| O/U 49.5 | 23% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 23% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 23% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 21% |
| Spread -3.5 | 20% |
| Spread -10.5 | 20% |
| Duke O/U 29.5 | 18% |
| O/U 51.5 | 17% |
| Spread -13.5 | 16% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 14% |
| Spread -5.5 | 13% |
| Spread -4.5 | 13% |
| Spread -14.5 | 13% |
| O/U 53.5 | 13% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 13% |
| Spread -6.5 | 11% |
| Spread -16.5 | 11% |
| O/U 55.5 | 10% |
| Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| Spread -17.5 | 7% |
| Spread -20.5 | 6% |
| Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| O/U 61.5 | 5% |
| Spread -14.5 | 4% |
| Spread -13.5 | 4% |
| O/U 67.5 | 3% |
| Spread -20.5 | 2% |
| Spread -16.5 | 2% |
| Spread -17.5 | 1% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Duke 1H O/U 11.5 | 0% |
| Duke 1H O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| Duke 1H O/U 15.5 | 0% |
| Virginia 1H O/U 14.5 | 0% |
| Virginia 1H O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 1H Moneyline | 0% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Duke vs. Virginia. In the upcoming college football game between Duke and Virginia, scheduled for October 23 at 7:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Duke" if Duke win the game. This market will resolve to "Virginia" …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $588K.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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