Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Zhejiang Zhiye FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Zhejiang Zhiye FC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Zhejiang Zhiye FC O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Dalian Yingbo FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Dalian Yingbo FC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Zhejiang Zhiye FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Zhejiang Zhiye FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Zhejiang Zhiye FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Dalian Yingbo FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Dalian Yingbo FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Zhejiang Zhiye FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Dalian Yingbo FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Zhejiang Zhiye FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| Dalian Yingbo FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Dalian Yingbo FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Zhejiang Zhiye FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Dalian Yingbo FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Dalian Yingbo FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Zhejiang are set to face Dalian Yingbo in the Chinese Super League, with the Polymarket contract for “more markets” currently sitting at **0% YES**, which means the crowd is assigning no value to any extra event beyond the standard match settlement. On Polymarket, that price is not about who wins the football match in the abstract; it reflects what gets resolved on-chain in USDC through Polygon conditional tokens, so the key question is whether any listed ancillary market conditions are actually triggered before the settlement window closes.
For context, this is a low-information price rather than an active disagreement. Comparable CSL fixture markets around similarly late-listed side outcomes often stay pinned near zero until the market-maker or early traders have a reason to believe a specific additional condition will be recognised, which can include unusual match interruptions, rescheduling, or a clearly defined extra-market rule set. The fixture itself is scheduled for Huanglong Stadium on Sunday, 26 July, which gives traders a narrow window to assess whether the contract’s wording is likely to be satisfied at all.[1]
The main catalysts are procedural rather than purely sporting: official team sheets, league confirmation of kick-off timing, weather or pitch-related delays, and any Polymarket rule clarification that changes what counts as a resolvable “more markets” outcome. Because settlement ends at 2026-07-26T12:00:00Z, anything posted after that point is generally irrelevant to resolution, so the practical focus is on pre-deadline league notices and market specification rather than in-play scoreline movement.[1]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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