Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
92% | 8% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
92% | 8% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 92% |
| Zirə FK O/U 0.5 | 86% |
| O/U 1.5 | 72% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 66% |
| Paide Linnameeskond O/U 0.5 | 57% |
| Zirə FK O/U 1.5 | 55% |
| Zirə FK 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 54% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 52% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Paide Linnameeskond 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Zirə FK 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Paide Linnameeskond 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Paide Linnameeskond 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Zirə FK 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Zirə FK 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 | 46% |
| Both Teams to Score | 41% |
| Zirə FK (-1.5) | 40% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 28% |
| Zirə FK O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| O/U 3.5 | 24% |
| Zirə FK (-2.5) | 18% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 14% |
| Paide Linnameeskond O/U 1.5 | 13% |
| O/U 4.5 | 10% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 9% |
| Paide Linnameeskond O/U 2.5 | 5% |
| O/U 5.5 | 4% |
| Paide Linnameeskond (-1.5) | 3% |
| Paide Linnameeskond 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 3% |
| Paide Linnameeskond (-2.5) | 1% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 92% probability to paide linnameeskond vs. zirə fk - more markets. More markets for the UEFA Europa Conference League game, scheduled for July 23 at 12:00 PM ET.
Methodology
We track Paide Linnameeskond vs. Zirə FK - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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