Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| HNK Rijeka O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| HNK Rijeka 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| HNK Rijeka (-1.5) | 0% |
| Derry City FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| HNK Rijeka (-2.5) | 0% |
| Derry City FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| HNK Rijeka O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| HNK Rijeka O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Derry City FC O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Derry City FC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Derry City FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| HNK Rijeka 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| HNK Rijeka 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Derry City FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Derry City FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| HNK Rijeka 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Derry City FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Derry City FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
HNK Rijeka v Derry City is live on Polymarket as a **More Markets** football contract, and with the crowd currently assigning **0% YES**, the market is pricing no extra qualifying-case style event into this specific slate beyond the base match setup. On Polymarket, traders post **USDC** on **Polygon**, and the exchange’s **conditional tokens** settle against the contract’s defined outcome window rather than a subjective read on the tie itself.
For context, the wider football market has not treated this as a coin flip. Pre-match previews mostly leaned towards Rijeka at home, with several models and odds screens showing a strong home favourite profile, while Derry City were priced as clear outsiders[1][3][5][7]. That matters for a “more markets” contract because low-probability side outcomes usually need a very specific match script to land, and the market can stay pinned near zero when the base expectation is already a straightforward home result.
The main catalysts are operational rather than abstract: confirm the final team sheets, any late injury or rotation news, and whether the match starts on schedule, because those are the kinds of updates that can change how add-on markets are interpreted and when conditional tokens resolve. The scheduled kick-off is Thursday 23 July at 2:45 PM ET, and the final scoreline already reported by one live match source was Rijeka 1-0 Derry City[12], so traders should watch the exact market wording and settlement rules closely before assuming any late-state pricing is still actionable.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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