Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Map Handicap: GLS (-1.5) vs Keyd (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Galorys (-3.5) vs Keyd (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Keyd (-3.5) vs Galorys (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
Market context
Polymarket is currently pricing this Galorys versus Keyd best-of-three as a near-certain Galorys win, with the contract effectively sitting at **100% YES** and trading in USDC on Polygon through conditional tokens. That means the market is already treating a Galorys victory as the base case, even though the settlement rule still depends on the official match outcome rather than the scoreboard chatter around it.[13][1]
For context, these prices tend to become one-sided when a pairing has already been played or when the same event has a clear prior result. Here, the comparable case is the earlier BetBoom Storm meeting between the teams, which finished 2-0 to Galorys on 9 August, the same day this Round 4 fixture was scheduled, and several results pages also list Galorys ahead again in the current match record.[2][17][1] In practice, that history matters because a repeated matchup in the same group-stage environment can anchor trader expectations, especially when the market is used to express the chance of a clean win rather than a narrow map score.
The main catalysts for traders are straightforward: whether the organiser confirms the fixture is completed, whether there is any schedule change before the settlement window closes, and whether the result is posted as a normal win rather than a forfeit or abandonment. BetBoom Storm’s group stage runs through 11 August, with playoff qualification due afterwards, so any delay, reschedule or administrative decision could still affect a market that resolves to 50-50 if the match is not played or is pushed beyond the seven-day limit.[14] Existing fixture listings show the match time around 23:15 UTC on 9 August, which aligns with the current result pages and suggests the contract is being judged on an already completed series rather than a live uncertainty.[1][6]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Counter-Strike: Galorys vs Keyd (BO3) - BetBoom Stor… on PolyGram
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