Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
57% | 43% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
57% | 43% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 57% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 55% |
| Match Winner | 54% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 53% |
| Game 1 Winner | 52% |
| Game 2 Winner | 52% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 52% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 52% |
| Any Player Rampage | 52% |
| Ends in Daytime | 51% |
| Ends in Daytime | 51% |
| Ends in Daytime | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 49% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 31% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 31% |
| Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs PlayTime (+1.5) | 28% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 28% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 28% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 28% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 28% |
| Any Player Rampage | 26% |
| Any Player Rampage | 26% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 57% probability to dota 2: vici gaming vs playtime (bo3) - esports world cup survival. This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 1 match between Vici Gaming and PlayTime in the Esports World Cup Survival, initially scheduled for July 14 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Vici Gami…
Methodology
This page reviews Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - Esports World Cup Survival across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
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