Switzerland vs. Colombia - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Market context

On 7 July 2026 at 4:00 PM ET, Switzerland and Colombia will meet in the FIFA World Cup Round of 16 in Vancouver, with the market betting on whether the match ends in an exact listed score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. The contract currently trades at 11% YES on Polymarket, reflecting a cautious view that this precise outcome is unlikely despite both teams entering as group winners[1][2].

Historically, exact-score markets in World Cup knockout games rarely exceed 15% probability unless one side is heavily favoured or defensive tactics dominate. Switzerland and Colombia have played only twice since 1994, with Colombia winning both and a combined goal tally of just four, suggesting tight, low-scoring contests are plausible but specific scorelines remain volatile[5][9]. Recent Round of 16 matches in 2022 and 2018 averaged 2.3 goals per game, further framing why 11% is a conservative but not implausible price for an exact outcome.

Traders should monitor final squad announcements and tactical shifts from both coaches, as any injury to key attackers could drastically alter scoring expectations. Colombia’s flair and creative midfield, highlighted in their group-stage performances, contrast with Switzerland’s structured defence, making pre-match lineups critical[1][6]. ESPN’s live odds show Switzerland at +130 and Colombia at +125, with the over-2.5 goals market priced at +130, indicating the market expects a close, potentially low-scoring affair[3]. No major postponements are expected, but weather in Vancouver could influence play if conditions worsen before kick-off.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.