Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots | 95% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots | 94% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ shots | 89% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ shots | 79% |
| Rodri: 1+ shots | 78% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots | 75% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots | 74% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots | 74% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots on target | 73% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots on target | 73% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots | 68% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ shots | 66% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ shots | 64% |
| Pedri: 1+ shots | 61% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ shots on target | 61% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ shots | 59% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots on target | 59% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots | 57% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ shots | 54% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ shots | 53% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots | 51% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Cucurella: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Cucurella: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Nicolas Raskin: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Pedri: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Rodri: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| David Raya: 2+ saves | 49% |
| David Raya: 3+ saves | 49% |
| David Raya: 4+ saves | 49% |
| David Raya: 5+ saves | 49% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 5+ saves | 49% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ferrán Torres: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ferrán Torres: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jeremy Doku: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Leandro Trossard: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Merino: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Merino: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Merino: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Merino: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico Williams: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Pedri: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Pedri: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Pedri: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Pedri: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Pedro Porro: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Pedro Porro: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Youri Tielemans: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Youri Tielemans: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Timothy Castagne: 3+ shots | 47% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Hans Vanaken: 1+ shots | 46% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots | 45% |
| Cucurella: 1+ shots | 44% |
| Hans Vanaken: 1+ shots on target | 44% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals | 42% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 2+ shots | 42% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 1+ shots | 41% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 1+ shots on target | 41% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Hans Vanaken: 4+ shots | 40% |
| Nicolas Raskin: 1+ shots on target | 39% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 1+ shots on target | 39% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ shots on target | 38% |
| Nicolas Raskin: 2+ shots | 37% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ shots on target | 37% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ shots on target | 37% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 2+ shots | 36% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals | 35% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ shots on target | 35% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots on target | 35% |
| Timothy Castagne: 2+ shots | 34% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots on target | 34% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 4+ saves | 34% |
| Nathan Ngoy: 2+ shots | 33% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots | 33% |
| Brandon Mechele: 2+ shots | 32% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 1+ shots | 32% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ shots on target | 31% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ shots on target | 31% |
| Hans Vanaken: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots on target | 31% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Rodri: 2+ shots | 30% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 2+ shots on target | 30% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 2+ shots on target | 30% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ shots on target | 30% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 3+ shots | 28% |
| Nicolas Raskin: 1+ shots | 28% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists | 28% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ shots | 27% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ shots | 26% |
| Nathan Ngoy: 1+ shots | 26% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots | 25% |
| Nicolas Raskin: 3+ shots | 25% |
| Pedri: 1+ shots on target | 25% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ shots on target | 24% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ goals | 21% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ shots | 21% |
| Cucurella: 3+ shots | 21% |
| Hans Vanaken: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Pedri: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Rodri: 1+ shots on target | 21% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ shots | 19% |
| Lamine Yamal: 5+ shots | 19% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots | 17% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 2+ shots | 17% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Cucurella: 2+ shots | 16% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ shots | 16% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots | 16% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 5+ shots | 16% |
| Pedri: 1+ assists | 16% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ shots | 15% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots on target | 15% |
| Mikel Merino: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Hans Vanaken: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Nathan Ngoy: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Rodri: 3+ shots | 13% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals + assists | 13% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals + assists | 13% |
| Gavi Paez: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Yeremi Pino: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ shots | 12% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 4+ shots | 12% |
| Dani Olmo: 5+ shots | 12% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Youri Tielemans: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Mikel Merino: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Mikel Merino: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Pedri: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Pedri: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Pedro Porro: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Rodri: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Ferrán Torres: 3+ goals | 9% |
| Yeremi Pino: 3+ goals | 9% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ assists | 9% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals | 8% |
| Yeremi Pino: 2+ goals | 8% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Leandro Trossard: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 3+ shots | 8% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Gavi Paez: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Pedri: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Alex Baena: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Pedro Porro: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Youri Tielemans: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ goals | 4% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Leandro Trossard: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Mikel Merino: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 5+ shots | 3% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Pedri: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Mikel Merino: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Pedri: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ goals | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, spain vs. belgium - player props stands at 95% likelihood according to current market consensus. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Spain and Belgium, scheduled for July 10 at 3:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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Trade Spain vs. Belgium - Player Props on PolyGram
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