Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
77% | 23% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
77% | 23% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Mexico Corners: O/U 2.5 | 77% |
| Ecuador Corners: O/U 2.5 | 65% |
| Total Corners: O/U 6.5 | 63% |
| Mexico Corners: O/U 3.5 | 56% |
| 2nd Half Total Corners: O/U 3.5 | 56% |
| Team to Take First Corner | 52% |
| Total Corners: O/U 7.5 | 51% |
| Total Corners: Odd or Even | 50% |
| 1st Half Total Corners: O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Ecuador Corners: O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Mexico Corners: O/U 4.5 | 41% |
| Total Corners: O/U 8.5 | 39% |
| 2nd Half Total Corners: O/U 4.5 | 39% |
| 1st Half Total Corners: O/U 4.5 | 31% |
| Total Corners: O/U 9.5 | 30% |
| Mexico Corners: O/U 5.5 | 28% |
| Ecuador Corners: O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| 2nd Half Total Corners: O/U 5.5 | 24% |
| Total Corners: O/U 10.5 | 22% |
| 1st Half Total Corners: O/U 5.5 | 18% |
| Total Corners: O/U 11.5 | 14% |
| Total Corners: O/U 12.5 | 9% |
Market context
Market consensus: 77% chance of mexico vs. ecuador - total corners. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. Total corners markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Mexico and Ecuador, scheduled for June 30 at 9:00 PM ET.
Methodology
We track Mexico vs. Ecuador - Total Corners across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade Mexico vs. Ecuador - Total Corners on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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