Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
97% | 3% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
97% | 3% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots | 97% |
| Julián Quiñones: 1+ shots | 91% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots | 85% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 1+ shots | 82% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ shots | 72% |
| Santiago Giménez: 2+ shots | 66% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots | 61% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 2+ shots | 61% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots | 60% |
| Julián Quiñones: 2+ shots | 56% |
| Santiago Giménez: 1+ shots | 55% |
| Armando González: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ivan Toney: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Ollie Watkins: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Armando González: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Ivan Toney: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Ollie Watkins: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Santiago Giménez: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Jordan Pickford: 2+ saves | 48% |
| Raúl Rangel: 2+ saves | 48% |
| Raúl Rangel: 4+ saves | 48% |
| Raúl Rangel: 5+ saves | 48% |
| Ollie Watkins: 1+ shots | 47% |
| Raúl Rangel: 3+ saves | 47% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ shots | 46% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 3+ shots | 41% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals + assists | 41% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals + assists | 39% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals | 38% |
| Ivan Toney: 1+ shots | 38% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 2+ goals + assists | 38% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots on target | 37% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 1+ shots on target | 36% |
| Julián Quiñones: 1+ shots on target | 35% |
| Ollie Watkins: 2+ shots on target | 34% |
| Jordan Pickford: 3+ saves | 34% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 3+ goals + assists | 34% |
| Julián Quiñones: 3+ shots | 33% |
| Armando González: 2+ shots on target | 33% |
| Ivan Toney: 2+ shots on target | 33% |
| Julián Quiñones: 4+ goals + assists | 33% |
| Ollie Watkins: 4+ shots | 32% |
| Santiago Giménez: 4+ shots | 32% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots on target | 32% |
| Santiago Giménez: 2+ shots on target | 32% |
| Jordan Pickford: 4+ saves | 32% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Julián Quiñones: 2+ goals + assists | 31% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ goals + assists | 31% |
| Ivan Toney: 3+ shots on target | 30% |
| Julián Quiñones: 3+ shots on target | 30% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ shots on target | 30% |
| Jordan Pickford: 5+ saves | 30% |
| Julián Quiñones: 3+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots on target | 29% |
| Armando González: 5+ shots | 28% |
| Ivan Toney: 4+ shots on target | 28% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 3+ shots on target | 28% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals | 27% |
| Armando González: 1+ shots | 27% |
| Santiago Giménez: 5+ shots | 27% |
| Armando González: 4+ shots | 26% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ shots | 26% |
| Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals | 25% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 4+ shots | 24% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 4+ goals + assists | 22% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Julián Quiñones: 4+ shots | 20% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 2+ shots on target | 16% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ shots | 15% |
| Julián Quiñones: 2+ shots on target | 15% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| Harry Kane: 5+ shots | 13% |
| Julián Quiñones: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Armando González: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Marcus Rashford: 5+ shots | 12% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 5+ shots | 11% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Julián Quiñones: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Santiago Giménez: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Ollie Watkins: 4+ shots on target | 7% |
| Ollie Watkins: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Ivan Toney: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Julián Quiñones: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Armando González: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Ivan Toney: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Ollie Watkins: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Santiago Giménez: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Ollie Watkins: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Armando González: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Ollie Watkins: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Santiago Giménez: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Santiago Giménez: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Ivan Toney: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Ollie Watkins: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Julián Quiñones: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Armando González: 3+ shots on target | 2% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ shots on target | 2% |
| Ollie Watkins: 3+ shots on target | 2% |
| Santiago Giménez: 3+ shots on target | 2% |
| Armando González: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Ivan Toney: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Ivan Toney: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Julián Quiñones: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ivan Toney: 4+ shots | 1% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 97% probability to mexico vs. england - player props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Mexico and England, scheduled for July 5 at 8:00 PM ET.
Methodology
We track Mexico vs. England - Player Props across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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