Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 96% |
| France O/U 0.5 | 92% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 83% |
| O/U 1.5 | 81% |
| France 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 76% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 74% |
| France O/U 1.5 | 74% |
| France 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 69% |
| France (-1.5) | 62% |
| O/U 2.5 | 59% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| France O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| Paraguay 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| France 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| Paraguay O/U 0.5 | 40% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 38% |
| France (-2.5) | 37% |
| O/U 3.5 | 37% |
| Both Teams to Score | 37% |
| France 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 32% |
| Paraguay 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 27% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 25% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 22% |
| France (-3.5) | 19% |
| O/U 4.5 | 19% |
| Paraguay 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 19% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 16% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 13% |
| Will the Match Go to Extra Time? | 13% |
| Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? | 12% |
| France (-4.5) | 11% |
| Paraguay O/U 1.5 | 11% |
| O/U 5.5 | 9% |
| Team to Advance | 9% |
| France (-5.5) | 6% |
| O/U 6.5 | 3% |
| O/U 7.5 | 2% |
| Paraguay O/U 2.5 | 2% |
| Paraguay 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 2% |
| Paraguay (-1.5) | 1% |
| Paraguay (-2.5) | 1% |
| Paraguay (-3.5) | 1% |
| O/U 8.5 | 1% |
| Paraguay (-4.5) | 0% |
| Paraguay (-5.5) | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 96% probability to paraguay vs. france - more markets. More markets for the FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for July 4 at 5:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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