Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
58% | 42% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
58% | 42% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 58% |
| CA Huracán O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| CA Huracán O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| CA Tucumán O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| CA Tucumán O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| CA Tucumán O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| CA Huracán 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| CA Huracán 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| CA Tucumán 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| CA Tucumán 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| O/U 0.5 | 24% |
| CA Huracán O/U 0.5 | 17% |
| O/U 1.5 | 5% |
| Both Teams to Score | 5% |
| CA Huracán (-1.5) | 4% |
| CA Tucumán (-1.5) | 4% |
| O/U 3.5 | 3% |
| CA Huracán (-2.5) | 2% |
| CA Tucumán (-2.5) | 2% |
| O/U 2.5 | 2% |
| O/U 4.5 | 2% |
| O/U 5.5 | 2% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| CA Huracán 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| CA Huracán 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| CA Tucumán 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| CA Tucumán 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Huracán v Atlético Tucumán is trading on Polymarket at **4% YES** for the “More Markets” contract, so the market is assigning only a small chance to whatever linked condition settles before the window closes at 00:15 UTC on 4 August. On-chain, that price reflects USDC-backed positions on Polygon and the usual conditional-token settlement flow, so the contract can move quickly if the underlying match state or related market definition changes late.
For context, the broader football markets around this fixture have generally treated Huracán as the likelier side but not a dominant one, with bookmaker prices clustering around a home edge and relatively low goal expectations. Recent odds have put Huracán roughly in the mid-2s and Atlético Tucumán higher, while several previews also point to compact scorelines and a modest total-goals environment.[3][4][8][12] That makes a low single-digit Polymarket probability easier to read as a niche outcome than as a view on the match winner itself.
Traders should watch final team news, whether the fixture goes ahead on schedule, and any dependency in the “More Markets” definition, because a late cancellation, postponement, or settlement ambiguity can matter more here than the scoreline. If the market is tied to secondary match events, the decisive catalyst is usually the official competition feed rather than pre-match opinion, since the contract resolves from the on-chain rules, not the live odds screen.[6][11]
Methodology
This page reviews CA Huracán vs. CA Tucumán - More Markets across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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