Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| CA Sarmiento (-1.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CA Sarmiento O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CA Sarmiento O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| CA Sarmiento 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CA Sarmiento 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CA Huracán (-1.5) | 0% |
| CA Sarmiento (-2.5) | 0% |
| CA Huracán (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| CA Sarmiento O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| CA Huracán O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| CA Huracán O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| CA Huracán O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| CA Sarmiento 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| CA Huracán 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| CA Huracán 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| CA Sarmiento 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| CA Huracán 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| CA Huracán 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
CA Sarmiento will face CA Huracán in a Primera División Argentina fixture on 16 August 2026, with kickoff scheduled for 14:00 ET. The market currently settles at 100% YES on Polymarket, indicating traders expect additional betting markets to be created for this match. On-chain, this conditional token structure allows users to deposit USDC on Polygon and gain exposure to secondary markets tied to the same fixture—goal totals, first scorer, half-time results, or other granular outcomes that typically accompany major league matches.
Historical precedent suggests Argentine top-flight derbies and standard league fixtures routinely attract multiple derivative markets once initial match-odds settle. The 100% probability reflects near-certainty that Polymarket's market operators will expand the offering, a pattern consistent with how the platform handles established football calendars. Sarmiento and Huracán both maintain regular league status, making them eligible for the full suite of conditional betting products.
Traders monitoring this contract should track Polymarket's official announcements regarding market expansion timelines and any fixture postponements or scheduling changes announced by the Argentine Football Association. Injury reports or squad news affecting either club could influence the secondary markets' pricing once they launch, though such developments would not affect settlement of the primary "more markets" contract itself. The settlement window closes 16 August at 18:00 UTC, allowing a four-hour buffer after the scheduled match conclusion.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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