National Bank Open: Terence Atmane vs Jakub Mensik

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket’s contract on Terence Atmane vs Jakub Menšík is trading at about **19% YES** today, implying the market still sees Menšík as the clear favourite on the conditional-token curve settled in USDC on Polygon. In simple terms, buyers of YES are betting Atmane advances; NO reflects Menšík advancing, while a cancellation or a delay beyond the market’s 7-day window would push settlement to 50-50 under the rules.

That pricing sits well below most conventional tennis views on the match. Pre-match commentary and bookmaker screens have generally favoured Menšík, with Tennis Tonic listing him as the pick and showing initial prices around 1.33 for Menšík versus 3.28 for Atmane, while other odds aggregators have put Menšík in the mid-1.4s and Atmane near 2.7-2.9. Independent prediction models have also leaned Menšík, including one estimate at roughly a 64% win chance, so Polymarket’s 19% YES implies a much larger discount on Atmane than the wider market.

For traders, the main catalyst is not abstract form but whether the match actually starts and completes inside the settlement logic. The current schedule lists the encounter on 7 August at Rogers Court in Montreal, but live tournament order-of-play changes, weather, prior match length, or retirements can still affect whether the contract resolves to a player or to 50-50. If the match is postponed, suspended, or otherwise fails to produce a winner within seven days of the scheduled date, the token pair’s payout mechanics matter more than the scoreboard itself.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews National Bank Open: Terence Atmane vs Jakub Mensik across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.