Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
55% | 45% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
55% | 45% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open ATP: Nuno Borges vs Learner Tien Game Spread +/-3.5 | 55% |
| US Open ATP: Nuno Borges vs Learner Tien Match O/U 38.5 | 52% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Nuno Borges vs Learner Tien Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Nuno Borges vs Learner Tien Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Nuno Borges vs Learner Tien Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Nuno Borges vs Learner Tien Match O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Nuno Borges vs Learner Tien Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Nuno Borges vs Learner Tien Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Nuno Borges vs Learner Tien Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Nuno Borges vs Learner Tien Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Nuno Borges vs Learner Tien Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Nuno Borges vs Learner Tien Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Nuno Borges vs Learner Tien Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Nuno Borges vs Learner Tien Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Nuno Borges vs Learner Tien Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Nuno Borges vs Learner Tien Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Nuno Borges vs Learner Tien Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Nuno Borges vs Learner Tien Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Nuno Borges vs Learner Tien Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Nuno Borges vs Learner Tien Match O/U 40.5 | 49% |
| US Open ATP: Nuno Borges vs Learner Tien Set 2 Winner | 38% |
| US Open ATP: Nuno Borges vs Learner Tien Set 3 Winner | 38% |
| US Open ATP: Nuno Borges vs Learner Tien Set 1 Winner | 33% |
| US Open ATP: Nuno Borges vs Learner Tien | 32% |
| US Open ATP: Nuno Borges vs Learner Tien Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 28% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, us open atp: nuno borges vs learner tien stands at 55% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Nuno Borges and Learner Tien in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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