Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open ATP: Luciano Darderi vs Harry Wendelken Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Luciano Darderi vs Harry Wendelken Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Luciano Darderi vs Harry Wendelken Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 90% |
| US Open ATP: Luciano Darderi vs Harry Wendelken Set 3 Winner | 77% |
| US Open ATP: Luciano Darderi vs Harry Wendelken | 74% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Luciano Darderi vs Harry Wendelken Match O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Luciano Darderi vs Harry Wendelken Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Luciano Darderi vs Harry Wendelken Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Luciano Darderi vs Harry Wendelken Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Luciano Darderi vs Harry Wendelken Match O/U 40.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Luciano Darderi vs Harry Wendelken Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Luciano Darderi vs Harry Wendelken Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Luciano Darderi vs Harry Wendelken Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Luciano Darderi vs Harry Wendelken Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Luciano Darderi vs Harry Wendelken Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Luciano Darderi vs Harry Wendelken Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Luciano Darderi vs Harry Wendelken Match O/U 38.5 | 48% |
| US Open ATP: Luciano Darderi vs Harry Wendelken Game Spread +/-4.5 | 29% |
| US Open ATP: Luciano Darderi vs Harry Wendelken Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 1% |
| US Open ATP: Luciano Darderi vs Harry Wendelken Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 1% |
| US Open ATP: Luciano Darderi vs Harry Wendelken Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Luciano Darderi vs Harry Wendelken Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Luciano Darderi vs Harry Wendelken Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Luciano Darderi vs Harry Wendelken Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Luciano Darderi vs Harry Wendelken Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to us open atp: luciano darderi vs harry wendelken. This market refers to the tennis match between Luciano Darderi and Harry Wendelken in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Luciano Dar…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade US Open ATP: Luciano Darderi vs Harry Wendelken on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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