Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Andrea Guerrieri vs Daniil Glinka

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the Grodzisk Mazowiecki semi-final between Andrea Guerrieri and Daniil Glinka at **47%** for Guerrieri, which leaves the contract close to a coin flip rather than a clear favourite. In practical terms, buyers are paying USDC on Polygon for conditional tokens that resolve on the official match outcome, so the live market is as much about completion risk and scheduling as about pure tennis strength.[19][20]

The current level is consistent with a live contest between players ranked close enough for a narrow edge to matter, but with outside models split. Sofascore lists Glinka around ATP 169 and Guerrieri around ATP 215, while Tennis Temple’s pre-match probabilities lean more heavily to Glinka at roughly 78% and Tennis Tonic’s preview slightly favours Guerrieri, showing how dispersed pre-match reads have been.[1][4][14][2] There is also no established head-to-head record at the professional level, which reduces the value of direct matchup history and leaves recent form and surface fit to carry more weight.[2][8]

For traders, the main catalysts are straightforward: the match is scheduled for 8 August on outdoor hard courts in Grodzisk Mazowiecki, and the market only resolves to a winner if the event is completed under the organiser’s rules.[1][20] Any retirement, walkover, cancellation, tie, or delay beyond seven days pushes resolution to 50-50, so the contract is not just a view on who wins but also on whether the semi-final is fully played. The live score pages show the match listed for 09:00 UTC on Centre Court, with later pages updating the in-play status, so settlement risk will track the official result feed closely.[1][18]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.