Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
72% | 28% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
72% | 28% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Croatia Open: Alex Molcan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 72% |
| Croatia Open: Alex Molcan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 69% |
| Croatia Open: Alex Molcan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Match O/U 21.5 | 52% |
| Croatia Open: Alex Molcan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 51% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Croatia Open: Alex Molcan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 49% |
| Croatia Open: Alex Molcan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Set 2 Winner | 45% |
| Croatia Open: Alex Molcan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Match O/U 22.5 | 45% |
| Croatia Open: Alex Molcan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 44% |
| Croatia Open: Alex Molcan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Set 1 Winner | 44% |
| Croatia Open: Alex Molcan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Match O/U 23.5 | 40% |
| Croatia Open: Alex Molcan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 38% |
| Croatia Open: Alex Molcan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 38% |
| Croatia Open: Alex Molcan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 28% |
| Croatia Open: Alex Molcan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 26% |
| Croatia Open: Alex Molcan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 26% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 72% probability to croatia open: alex molcan vs alejandro davidovich fokina. This market refers to the tennis match between Alex Molcan and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the Croatia Open, originally scheduled for July 16, 2026 at 3:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alex …
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
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