Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Phan Thiet 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Yuta Shimizu Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Yuta Shimizu Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Yuta Shimizu Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Yuta Shimizu Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Yuta Shimizu Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Yuta Shimizu Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Yuta Shimizu Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Yuta Shimizu Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Yuta Shimizu Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 91% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Yuta Shimizu Match O/U 22.5 | 91% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Yuta Shimizu Match O/U 23.5 | 91% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Yuta Shimizu Game Spread +/-4.5 | 50% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Yuta Shimizu | 28% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Yuta Shimizu Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 10% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Yuta Shimizu Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Yuta Shimizu Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to phan thiet 3: hiroki moriya vs yuta shimizu. This market refers to the tennis match between Hiroki Moriya and Yuta Shimizu in the Phan Thiet 3, originally scheduled for September 10, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Hiroki Moriy…
Methodology
We track Phan Thiet 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Yuta Shimizu across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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