Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jack Pinnington Jones Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jack Pinnington Jones Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jack Pinnington Jones Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jack Pinnington Jones Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jack Pinnington Jones Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jack Pinnington Jones Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jack Pinnington Jones | 95% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jack Pinnington Jones Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 75% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jack Pinnington Jones Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 72% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jack Pinnington Jones Set 3 Winner | 69% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jack Pinnington Jones Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 60% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jack Pinnington Jones Set 4 Winner | 53% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jack Pinnington Jones Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jack Pinnington Jones Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jack Pinnington Jones Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jack Pinnington Jones Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jack Pinnington Jones Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jack Pinnington Jones Match O/U 40.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jack Pinnington Jones Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jack Pinnington Jones Match O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jack Pinnington Jones Match O/U 38.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jack Pinnington Jones Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 26% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jack Pinnington Jones Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jack Pinnington Jones Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of wimbledon atp: brandon nakashima vs jack pinnington jones. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Brandon Nakashima and Jack Pinnington Jones in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market w…
Methodology
This page reviews Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jack Pinnington Jones across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Trade Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jack Pinnington … on PolyGram
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