Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CR Brasil O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CR Brasil 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Ceará SC (-1.5) | 0% |
| CR Brasil (-1.5) | 0% |
| Ceará SC (-2.5) | 0% |
| CR Brasil (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Ceará SC O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Ceará SC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Ceará SC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| CR Brasil O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| CR Brasil O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Ceará SC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Ceará SC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| CR Brasil 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Ceará SC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Ceará SC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| CR Brasil 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| CR Brasil 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Ceará SC v CR Brasil is the Brazil Série B fixture behind this Polymarket contract, and the market is currently pricing the “More Markets” basket at **0% YES**. On Polymarket, that means USDC collateral on Polygon is effectively assigning no value to any additional conditional-token outcome in this contract at the moment, so even small late changes in match context can matter more than the headline number suggests.
The closest historical guide is the match-up itself: comparable Ceará-CRB listings have often been framed around low-scoring expectations, with one live market snapshot specifically pointing to **Both Teams to Score: Yes** as the relevant scoring angle for the fixture[1]. For a trader, that kind of setup usually means the “more markets” category is most sensitive to whether the game stays tight, whether there is early rotation, and whether pre-match pricing firms up around a narrow set of outcomes rather than a broad market menu.
The main catalysts to watch are the club line-ups, late injury or suspension news, and any official scheduling or competition updates that alter which ancillary markets are actually posted before the 22:30 UTC settlement window. Because this contract settles on what is available by then, the practical question is not just how the match is trending, but whether the exchange’s market list is expanded in time for those conditional tokens to resolve against a wider set of outcomes.
Sources: 1
Methodology
This page reviews Ceará SC vs. CR Brasil - More Markets across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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