SC Recife vs. Botafogo FC

Platform comparison

Market context

Sport Recife and Botafogo SP faced off in Brazil’s Serie B on Friday, 10 July 2026, at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho, with the match concluding 1–0 to Sport Recife [8]. On Polymarket, the YES contract for this fixture now trades at 0% implied probability, reflecting the settled outcome rather than forward uncertainty. The market uses USDC on Polygon, where conditional tokens resolve automatically once the official result is confirmed on-chain.

Historically, Serie B contracts with 0% pricing post-match typically indicate the event has fully resolved, with no ambiguity in the official result. In comparable cases, such as the 2025 Brasileirão Round 12 clash between Coritiba and Goiás, markets settled within hours of the final whistle, and no retrading occurred once the score was confirmed [1]. The 0% price here aligns with that pattern: the outcome is final, and the conditional token pool will distribute to NO holders once settlement triggers.

Traders should monitor the official settlement timestamp on Polymarket, which depends on the feed from the Brazilian Football Confederation (CBF). Any delay in result confirmation could postpone token resolution, though no such delay is currently reported. The match was Round 17 of the 2026 Serie B season, and the 1–0 result is already recorded across major sports data providers [1][2]. With the settlement window ending 23:00 UTC on 10 July, the market is effectively closed for new positions.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.