Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Zhejiang Zhiye FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Zhejiang Zhiye FC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Chengdu Rongcheng FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Chengdu Rongcheng FC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Chengdu Rongcheng FC O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Zhejiang Zhiye FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Zhejiang Zhiye FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Chengdu Rongcheng FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Chengdu Rongcheng FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Chengdu Rongcheng FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Zhejiang Zhiye FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Zhejiang Zhiye FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Zhejiang Zhiye FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Chengdu Rongcheng FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Zhejiang Zhiye FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Zhejiang Zhiye FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Zhejiang Zhiye and Chengdu Rongcheng meet in the Chinese Super League on 15 August, with settlement contingent on additional market offerings beyond the standard match outcome contracts. On Polymarket, this conditional token sits at 0% implied probability, reflecting either minimal liquidity depth or genuine uncertainty about whether supplementary markets will materialise for this fixture. The USDC settlement mechanism on Polygon means traders holding positions here depend on resolution criteria being clearly defined and executed on-chain before the 11:35 UTC deadline.
Chinese Super League scheduling has historically been volatile, with fixture postponements and rescheduling common during the mid-season window. Zhejiang Zhiye finished mid-table in 2023, whilst Chengdu Rongcheng has cycled through ownership and management changes that affect fixture stability. The 0% pricing suggests the market has not yet seen confirmation of which additional markets—whether player performance props, corner counts, or card totals—will actually launch alongside the main match contract. Without clarity on what "more markets" entails, traders cannot assess settlement conditions.
The critical catalyst is official confirmation from Polymarket's sports team regarding which supplementary markets will be offered. Recent Chinese Super League coverage from sources like Sina Sports indicates fixture scheduling typically finalises two weeks prior. Traders should monitor whether Polymarket publishes the specific conditional token definitions and whether Zhejiang or Chengdu announce squad availability or injury concerns that might affect market depth. The current 0% reflects a contract awaiting definition rather than a prediction about the underlying match itself.
Methodology
This page reviews Zhejiang Zhiye FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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