Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Heart of Midlothian FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Heart of Midlothian FC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| SK Rapid Wien O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| SK Rapid Wien O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| SK Rapid Wien 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Heart of Midlothian FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Heart of Midlothian FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| SK Rapid Wien 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Heart of Midlothian FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| SK Rapid Wien (-1.5) | 0% |
| Heart of Midlothian FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| SK Rapid Wien (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Heart of Midlothian FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| SK Rapid Wien O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Heart of Midlothian FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Heart of Midlothian FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| SK Rapid Wien 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| SK Rapid Wien 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Hearts’ Europa Conference League tie with Rapid Wien is already reflected on Polymarket as a dead market, with the contract marked at 0% YES after the settlement window closed on 20 August 2026 at 18:45 UTC. On Polymarket, traders are not betting the football in the abstract; they are pricing a USDC-settled, Polygon-based conditional token against the exact contract terms and deadline.
That 0% read is consistent with how these markets usually behave once the window has passed or the resolution condition is no longer live. In comparable football contracts, late price changes tend to come from a confirmed settlement source, not from in-play noise, because the token can only redeem if the defined event still matches the market rules. For users, the useful comparison is not the scoreline alone but whether the contract’s resolution source and timing have already made the outcome mechanically final.
The remaining catalysts are administrative rather than sporting: official match reporting, any competition-side schedule amendments, and the settlement feed Polymarket uses to determine outcome. BBC, Sky Sports and ESPN all carried live coverage of the tie on 20 August, with the match listed at Tynecastle Park and the second leg set for 26 August in Vienna, so any discrepancy would more likely come from resolution timing than from the fixture itself.[1][2][3]
Methodology
This page reviews Heart of Midlothian FC vs. SK Rapid Wien - More Markets across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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