Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Nordsjælland O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Nordsjælland 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Nordsjælland O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| FC St. Gallen O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| FC Nordsjælland 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| FC St. Gallen 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| FC Nordsjælland (-1.5) | 0% |
| FC St. Gallen (-1.5) | 0% |
| FC Nordsjælland (-2.5) | 0% |
| FC St. Gallen (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Nordsjælland O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC St. Gallen O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC St. Gallen O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Nordsjælland 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC St. Gallen 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| FC St. Gallen 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Nordsjælland 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| FC St. Gallen 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
Market context
FC Nordsjælland, the Danish club, will face FC St. Gallen of Switzerland in a UEFA Europa Conference League qualifier on 20 August 2026. The match forms part of the competition's playoff round, where aggregate scores determine progression. Polymarket currently prices this "More Markets" contract at 0% YES, reflecting either minimal liquidity on this particular derivative or a settlement condition tied to specific additional market offerings that have not yet materialised on-chain. The underlying fixture itself carries standard competitive uncertainty—both sides compete in their domestic top divisions, though St. Gallen holds recent European pedigree from Swiss football's stronger UEFA coefficient standing.
Historical Conference League qualifiers show volatile pricing patterns when markets fragment across multiple conditional tokens. Similar "More Markets" contracts on Polygon have typically resolved YES when exchanges expanded their offerings beyond standard match outcomes (first goalscorer, exact scorelines, player performance metrics). The current zero probability suggests either the market has not yet attracted sufficient USDC liquidity to establish a meaningful price, or traders anticipate limited additional market creation for this particular fixture.
Catalysts include official Polymarket announcements regarding expanded market listings, typically released 48–72 hours before fixture kickoff. St. Gallen's recent Europa League participation and Nordsjælland's domestic form will influence whether derivative markets justify creation costs. Settlement hinges on whether new conditional tokens launch before the 20 August 17:00 UTC window closes, making exchange infrastructure decisions the primary driver rather than match performance itself.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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