Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| RKS Raków Częstochowa (-1.5) | 100% |
| RKS Raków Częstochowa (-2.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| RKS Raków Częstochowa O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| RKS Raków Częstochowa O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| RKS Raków Częstochowa O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| RKS Raków Częstochowa 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| RKS Raków Częstochowa 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| RKS Raków Częstochowa 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| RKS Raków Częstochowa 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Valletta FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Valletta FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Valletta FC O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Valletta FC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Valletta FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Valletta FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Valletta FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Valletta FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Valletta FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Team to Advance | 0% |
Market context
Valletta FC v Raków Częstochowa is a UEFA Europa Conference League qualifier, and Polymarket currently prices the **More Markets** contract at **0% YES** for the 30 July settlement window. On Polymarket, buyers and sellers post USDC on Polygon and the market resolves through conditional tokens, so a zero print usually means traders see no realistic path for the specified set of ancillary conditions to be met before settlement.
The recent head-to-head is the key comparator: Raków beat Valletta 3-1 in the first leg in Częstochowa, after conceding first and then controlling the tie with goals from Mahir Emreli, Patryk Makuch and Stratos Svarnas.[5][9][15] That result left Raków in a strong aggregate position, and it also shows why a “more markets” contract tied to this fixture can be priced at the floor once the underlying match context has already moved decisively one way.[1][9] In practical terms, traders often treat these contracts as thinly traded event-specific branches rather than a pure view on who wins the football match.
The main catalysts are late team news, confirmed kick-off and administrative changes to the tie, plus any official UEFA updates on qualification progress or fixture timing.[8][12] For traders watching the order book, the relevant question is whether any announcement could still alter the conditional path before the settlement window closes on 30 July at 17:30 UTC; absent such news, the prior 3-1 first-leg outcome and the scheduled return leg are the dominant inputs.[1][9][12]
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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